Cambodia reduces 2026 growth forecast amid anti-scam campaign economic strain

(AsiaGameHub) –   The Cambodian government has revised its economic growth forecast for 2026 downward to 4.2%, a decrease from the initial target of 5% set out in the 2026 Budget Management Law.

A mid-term fiscal and economic analysis published by Cambodia China Times attributes this adjustment to increasing global energy prices, ongoing border tensions with Thailand, and intensified efforts against scam fraud, which led to a revision of Cambodia’s 2027 growth projection from 5.5% to 5%.

According to officials, while the anti-scam campaign is expected to enhance Cambodia’s investment appeal and international standing in the long term, it currently exerts pressure on key sectors including construction, real estate, and consumer spending.

The report further highlights that conflicts in the Middle East have driven up oil and gas prices, contributing to inflationary pressures and affecting industries such as tourism, transportation, agriculture, and retail.

Cambodia’s exports are still anticipated to remain robust, provided global trade conditions do not deteriorate; however, several international institutions have downgraded their forecasts for Cambodia’s economy in 2026—the IMF projects a 4% increase, while the World Bank estimates 3.9%.

In response, Cambodia plans to maintain a “neutral fiscal stance” to ensure the sustainability of public finances, while simultaneously expanding the tax base, restoring fuel product tax rates, and bolstering investor confidence through stronger enforcement of anti-scam regulations.

Additional downward revisions to Cambodia’s 2026 growth projections have been made by various international bodies: the IMF at 4%, the World Bank at 3.9%, and AMRO at 4.9%.